Historical Examples Of Foresight

Error 'messages' come in many forms and, following, you will find a collection of statements and assertions from a variety of foresighted and prescient individuals who have distinguished themselves by ... you guessed it ... being completely and 100% in error.

1859:   "Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You're crazy." – Drillers whom Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill for oil.

1861:   "Ours has been the first, and doubtless to be the last, to visit this profitless locality." – Lt. Joseph Ives after visiting the Grand Canyon.

1872:   "Louis Pasteur's theory of germs is ridiculous fiction". – Pierre Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse.

1873:   "The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon". – Sir John Eric Ericksen, British surgeon, appointed Surgeon-Extraordinary to Queen Victoria.

1876:   "This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." – Western Union internal memo.

Actually, in Western Union’s world view, this was perfectly accurate

1895:   "Radio has no future. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. X-rays will prove to be a hoax."  – William Thomson, Lord Kelvin English scientist, president Royal Society.

1899:    "Everything that can be invented has been invented." – Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents.

1920:   "The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?" –David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio.

1921:   "Professor Goddard does not know the relation between action and reaction and the need to have something better than a vacuum against which to react. He seems to lack the basic knowledge ladled out daily in high schools." – New York Times editorial about Robert Goddard's revolutionary rocket work.

1927:   "Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" – H. M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.

1929:   "Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." –Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University.

1932:    "There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will." – Albert Einstein.

1941:   "No matter what happens, the U.S. Navy is not going to be caught napping."  – U.S. Secretary of Navy, December 4.

1943:   "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." – Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM. 

This estimate was raised to 10 about a year later

1949:   "Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons." – Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science.

1957:    "I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year." – Editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall.

1962:   "We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." – Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles.

1968:    "But what ... is it good for?" – Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, commenting on the microchip.

This question remains open – a conclusive answer would probably be a Nobel contender

1968:    "With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn't likely to carve out a big slice of the US market." – Business Week, August 2.

1974:    "It will be years–not in my time–before a woman will become Prime Minister." –Margaret Thatcher.

1977:    "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." – Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp.  

And they want me to address their conference this spring?

1981:   "640K ought to be enough for anybody." – Bill Gates.

Bill's pretty good at marketing but he never has really understood computers...

Undated Entries:

"A cookie store is a bad idea.  Besides, the market research reports say America likes crispy cookies, not soft and chewy cookies like you make."  – Response to Debbi Fields' idea of starting Mrs. Fields' Cookies.

"Airplanes are interesting toys, but they are of no military value  whatsoever." – Marechal Ferdinand Fock, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre

"I'm just glad it'll be Clark Gable who's falling on his face and not Gary Cooper." – Gary Cooper on his decision not to take the leading role in "Gone With The Wind."

"While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially it is an impossibility." – Lee DeForest, inventor and father of Radio

"There will never be a bigger plane built." – A Boeing engineer, after the first flight of the 247, a twin engine plane that carried ten people.

"The bomb will never go off. I speak as an expert in explosives."  – Admiral William Leahy, U.S. Atomic Bomb Project.

"The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a 'C,' the idea must be feasible." – A Yale University management professor in response to Fred Smith's paper proposing reliable overnight delivery service.  (Smith went on to found Federal Express Corp.)

"You want to have consistent and uniform muscle development across all of your muscles? It can't be done. It's just a fact of life. You just have to accept inconsistent muscle development as an unalterable condition of weight training." – Response to Arthur Jones, who solved the "unsolvable" problem by inventing Nautilus.

"So we went to Atari and said, 'Hey, we've got this amazing thing, even built with some of your parts, and what do you think about funding us? Or we'll give it to you. We just want to do it. Pay our salary, we'll come work for you.' And they said, 'No.' So then we went to Hewlett-Packard, and they said, 'Hey, we don't need you. You haven't got through college yet.'" –  Apple Computer Inc. founder, Steve Jobs, on attempts to get Atari and H-P interested in his and Steve Wozniak's personal computer.

"If I had thought about it, I wouldn't have done the experiment. The literature was full of examples that said you can't do this." – Spencer Silver on the work that led to the unique adhesives for 3-M "Post-It" Notepads.

And our own personal favorites...

In response to Mr. Bell's demonstration of the audiophone, the mayor of one of our major metropolitan areas was extremely impressed, expressing his enthusiasm as: "Why I can foresee the day when every city will have one!"

About the same time, however, the Post Master General of Great Britain was less intrigued with the new device and could not see any reason why it should receive any attention what-so-ever. "It may be all very well for the colonists," the Post Master General offered with judicious consideration, "but we (the British) have quite enough messenger boys."

... and progress stumbles on ...

Do you have a favorite example of extraordinary foresight?  If so, please let us know but – rather than mere sending us a quote – please include references and citations where the prescience quotation is supported or documented.  And, remember, fiction is easy but reality is always much more interesting … as well as more imaginative.

 Send your favorite examples of foresight to foresight@ezzell.org.